A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
